Chelsea extend WSL lead to six points - when could they win it?
The WSL season ends on 10 May
- Published
As the Women's Super League enters the final few weeks of the season, Chelsea remain in the driving seat for a sixth successive title.
Their lead was cut to three points following Arsenal's 5-1 win over Leicester last Tuesday, but Sonia Bompastor's Blues thrashed Crystal Palace 4-0 on Wednesday to move six points clear again.
Manchester United missed their chance to put the pressure on over the weekend as they drew 0-0 with West Ham.
United's draw gave Manchester City a little lift in their uphill battle to claim a Champions League spot - but they wasted their chance to close the gap as they drew 1-1 with Everton on Sunday.
City are seven points behind their third-placed neighbours but still have to play United.
At the other end of the table, Crystal Palace are seven points adrift of Aston Villa and Leicester, and could be relegated if they lose to West Ham on Sunday.
How are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in?
How do things stand at the top?
There have been no signs of teething problems for Chelsea this season under new boss Bompastor, as their league dominance - established under predecessor Emma Hayes - has continued.
Unbeaten in the WSL this season, Chelsea have 51 points from a possible 57, although two draws in March allowed closest challengers Arsenal to get within three points and Manchester United within five.
The highest total Arsenal could finish with is 54 points, meaning Chelsea need four more to guarantee the title.
Because of their Champions League semi-final participation, Chelsea's WSL game at Manchester United has been rearranged for 30 April.
They could clinch the title with victory over United (20:15 BST kick-off) should Arsenal drop points against Aston Villa earlier that evening (18:00).
Yet if the Gunners win all of their fixtures, the earliest Chelsea could be crowned champions is in their penultimate game of the season away to Tottenham on 4 May.
What about the race for Champions League?
Manchester City, who challenged Chelsea until the final day last season, are now mathematically out of the title race and only have slim hopes of achieving a Champions League spot.
Even if City win all their remaining games - including against their neighbours - one win from United's other two matches would be enough for them to finish third.
From next season, the Women's Champions League format is changing, with the number of teams earning direct qualification expanding from four teams to nine.
The winners of the WSL will directly qualify, along with the champions from the other five top-ranked national associations.
The runners-up of the two top-ranked associations - set to be France and Germany - will also be guaranteed direct qualification, along with the previous season's winners.
As it stands, the WSL champions will go directly into the league phase with the teams in second and third going into the qualifying rounds.
If Chelsea or Arsenal win the Champions League they would automatically qualify for the league phase as holders.
Who is at risk of relegation?
Crystal Palace look destined to return to the Championship after struggling to adapt during their first season in England's top division.
A 3-1 win over fellow strugglers Villa gave Leif Smerud's side hope but they are seven points adrift and will be relegated if they fail to beat West Ham on Sunday.
Villa are now almost safe after beating Liverpool at the end of March before a dramatic last-gasp win against Tottenham on Sunday increased their buffer to seven points.
Leicester will hope their seven-point cushion is enough. They have played a game more, which they lost 5-1 to Arsenal, but it would require a big turnaround from Palace to send the Foxes down.
What are the remaining fixtures?
Marc Skinner's Manchester United face three of the top four teams as they look to pile pressure on Chelsea and keep their Champions League place.
The Manchester derby on the penultimate day of the season could prove key in the race for Europe.
The fixture list has given City interim boss Nick Cushing cause for optimism.
"Once that's mathematically impossible then it is what it is, but until then we're going to fight right until the end," he said.
"We know we have to play Manchester United, we know Manchester United have to finish with Chelsea, us and Arsenal."
What does the Opta 'supercomputer' suggest?
Opta's 'supercomputer' prediction model has Chelsea as nailed-on favourites to lift the WSL trophy - they are projected as champions in 97.9% of simulations.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have been given a slither of hope, with Opta giving them a 2.1% chance of winning the title.
Manchester City's bid for European football does not look favourable either, with Cushing's side predicted to finish outside of the top three in 88.1% of simulations.
According to Opta's predictions, Amandine Miquel's Leicester have all but confirmed their stay in the WSL for another season, with only a 0.2% chance of relegation.
The stats also favour Villa, with them having a 0.1% chance of going down.
It's a worrying tale for Crystal Palace. They have a 99.6% chance of sitting bottom of the table on 10 May.